【摘要】The dimensions of resilience of the Welsh employment cycle are assessed. The Welsh economy has undergone reorientation and renewal since the deep crisis of the 1980s and it was more resistant than the UK for the 1990s’ crisis and has recovered its pre-recession peak for the most recent crisis. To visualize the regional spread of the most recent recession in Wales, turning points in unitary authority unemployment claims are dated and a series of maps show when Welsh authorities entered recession. It is found that the housing sector and manufacturing survey data are the best predictors of the Welsh employment cycle.

【关键词】Wales; Classical business cycles; Employment; Unemployment claimant count; Logistic model; Chamber of Commerce surveys

【文献来源】MARIANNE SENSIER; MICHAEL ARTIS.regional studies.2016（4）