【摘要】The United Kingdom has opted to leave the European Union. The consequences of Brexit on international trade are large and negative. While the UK aims for new, ambitious trade agreements after Brexit, it is not explicit about the type of agreements it envisions or with whom specifically. This paper considers the UK's options. We confirm Brexit's substantial, negative trade effects for the UK, EU, and major countries around the world. After reviewing all potential options, our answer to the question whether the UK has an alternative for the existing agreement with the EU is: No. Paradoxically, only a trade agreement with the EU can compensate for Brexit's trade losses.

【关键词】Brexit; gravity model; trade predictions

【文献来源】Brakman S.,Garretsen H.,Kohl T. .Consequences of Brexit and options for a Global Britain' .Papers in Regional Science ,2018 ,97(1).