【摘要】This study assesses the economic and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions impacts of a proposed 400-MW wind farm (Big Wind) in Hawaii. Due to its island setting; this project is a hybrid between onshore and offshore wind development. An undersea cable would carry the power from Maui County; which has high-quality wind areas; to the population center of Oahu; which has fewer sites for wind power.The project is additionally motivated by Hawaii’s high electricity rates; which are nearly three times the national average; and a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) mandating that 40% of the State’s electricity sales be met through renewable sources by the year 2030. Using an economy-wide computable general equilibrium model coupled with a fully dynamic optimization model for the electric sector; we find that the 400-MWwind project increases gross state product by $2.2 billion (in net present value) and average annual per capita income by $60 per year. Although there are potentially near-term welfare losses if there are capital cost overruns; fuel costs are a dominant factor in determining the cost-effectiveness of the project. However; without upgrades to Hawaii’s grid and/or its operations; there is a trade-off between investment in wind energy projects and solar PV. If higher levels of intermittent resources cannot be integrated into the system; higher-cost biofuels serve a more prominent role in meeting the RPS.Without upgrades; wind and solar PV generation are restricted; and hence; reduction in GHG emissions in excess of those present without the Big Wind project is negligible.With upgrades; the project is estimated to reduce GHG emissions by an additional 12 MMTCO2 from 2020 to 2040.

【文献来源】Coffman M;Bernstein P.Annals of regional Science.2015（1）