【摘要】A market-size-only theory of industrialization cannot explain why England developed nearly two centuries before China.  One shortcoming of such a theory is its exclusive focus on producers. We show that once we incorporate the incentives of factor suppliers’ organizations such as craft guilds, industrialization no longer depends on market size, but on spatial competition between the guilds’ jurisdictions.  We substantiate our theory (i) by providing historical and empirical evidence on the relation between spatial competition, craft guilds and innovation, and (ii) by showing the calibrated model correctly predicts the timings of the Industrial Revolution and the Great Divergence. two centuries before China.  One shortcoming of such a theory is its exclusive focus on producers. We show that once we incorporate the incentives of factor suppliers’ organizations such as craft guilds, industrialization no longer depends on market size, but on spatial competition between the guilds’ jurisdictions.  We substantiate our theory (i) by providing historical and empirical evidence on the relation between spatial competition, craft guilds and innovation, and (ii) by showing the calibrated model correctly predicts the timings of the Industrial Revolution and the Great Divergence .opportunities with high returns, mak- ing manufacturing firms more likely to diversify into the real estate industry. With limited resources, once investing in real estate development, these firms will invest less in inno- vation. By examining manufacturing firms in China for the period 1999–2007, we provide evidence by finding that housing price appreciation negatively influenced manufacturing firms’ innovation propensities. Additionally, we further explore the underlying mechanism by examining the likelihood of listed firms’ diversification into the real estate industry, and how the diversification influenced their patenting. Consistent with the investment oppor- tunity hypothesis, we find that (1) housing price appreciation stimulated firms to enter the real estate industry, and a firm’s invention patenting was negatively influenced subse- quent to its real estate diversification; (2) the negative effect was more pronounced where housing price growth rates were higher.

【关键词】Industrial Revolution,Great Divergence, craft guilds,  spatial competition,  inter-city competition, market size, endogenous institutions, innovation, adoption of technology competition, market size, endogenous institutions, innovation, adoption of technologyDiversification；China

【文献来源】Klaus Desmet, Avner Greif, Stephen Parente. Spatial Competition, Innovation and Institutions: The Industrial Revolution and the Great Divergence. NBER working paper, 2018, No.24727.